Asset prices, midterm elections, and political uncertainty
| Autor: | Terry A. Marsh, Kam Fong Chan |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
040101 forestry
Economics and Econometrics 050208 finance Presidential system business.industry Strategy and Management 05 social sciences Equity (finance) 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Monetary economics Investment (macroeconomics) Treasury Politics Accounting 0502 economics and business Economics 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Capital asset pricing model Asset (economics) business health care economics and organizations Finance Mutual fund |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Financial Economics. 141:276-296 |
| ISSN: | 0304-405X |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.007 |
| Popis: | This study attests to the important role of US midterm elections in asset pricing, even more important than presidential elections. In months following the midterms, equity premiums, mutual fund flows, and real investment growth rates are significantly higher and Treasury premiums are lower. This is consistent with theoretical models relating higher asset prices to lower future discount rates when post-election political uncertainty decreases. The results are robust to different measures of uncertainty. Also, market betas relate positively to the cross section of average returns in post-midterm months, but the relation is flat in other months. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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