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The main objective of this paper is to supply scientific basics for preventing and forecasting the prevalence of hand, foot and mouth disease to explore the effect of different meteorological conditions on occurrence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Wuwei City, northwestern China. Here the data about the diseases and weather was collected from 2008–2010, and the correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and exponential curve fitting methods were made. The results showed that 2688 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were collected from 2008 to 2010, and the annual average incidence was 47.62/100,000. The average prevalence of hand, foot and mouth disease at Liangzhou District, Minqin County, Gulang County and Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous County were 42.69, 38.52, 65.92 and 49.18 per 100,000 respectively. This disease occurred year-round in Wuwei City, but had a clear seasonal climax. Generally, the incidence increased from April and rose to the first peak in May, Jun, July respectively. The second peak was in September or October every year. Different meteorological factors had different impact on the epidemic of disease in four areas, such as average temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, rainfall and evaporation capacity. The results of multiple linear regressions indicated that relative humidity and atmospheric pressure were the main influence factors in Liangzhou District, average temperature in Gulang County, atmospheric pressure in Tianzhu County. The incidence of the disease and average sunshine hours showed exponential function relationship in Minqin County. In conclusion, different weather conditions have different impact on the prevalence of hand, foot and mouth disease. A high correlation exists in four areas of Wuwei City between meteorological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease occurrence. And summer and autumn were the important seasons to prevent and control the disease. |
