ANALYSIS OF SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF A THREATENED WILDLIFE SPECIES
| Autor: | Nathan H. Schumaker, Bruce G. Marcot, Peter H. Singleton |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
biology Ecology Population Small population size Environmental Science (miscellaneous) biology.organism_classification Habitat Modeling and Simulation Threatened species Northern spotted owl Environmental science Biological dispersal Carrying capacity education Uncertainty analysis |
| Zdroj: | Natural Resource Modeling. 28:37-58 |
| ISSN: | 0890-8575 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/nrm.12056 |
| Popis: | Sensitivity analysis—determination of how prediction vari- ables affect response variables—of individual-based models (IBMs) are few but important to the interpretation of model output. We present sensitiv- ity analysis of a spatially explicit IBM (HexSim) of a threatened species, the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO; Strix occidentalis caurina) in Washington, USA. We explored sensitivity to HexSim variables representing habitat qual- ity, movement, dispersal, and model architecture; previous NSO studies have well established sensitivity of model output to vital rate variation. We de- veloped "normative" (expected) model settings from field studies, and then varied the values of 1 input parameter at a time by ±10% and ±50% of their normative values to determine influence on response variables of pop- ulation size and trend. We determined time to population equilibration and dynamics of populations above and below carrying capacity. Recovery time from small population size to carrying capacity greatly exceeded decay time from an overpopulated condition, suggesting lag time required to repopu- late newly available habitat. Response variables were most sensitive to input parameters of habitat quality which are well-studied for this species and con- trollable by management. HexSim thus seems useful for evaluating potential NSO population responses to landscape patterns for which good empirical information is available. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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