Multiregional cohort enrolment projections: matching methods to enrolment policies

Autor: Stuart H. Sweeney, Erin J. Middleton
Rok vydání: 2005
Předmět:
Zdroj: Population, Space and Place. 11:361-380
ISSN: 1544-8452
1544-8444
Popis: School districts throughout California are struggling with uncertainty in primary school enrolment levels. Some areas of the state are witnessing soaring enrolment levels due to immigration and internal migration, while other areas with expensive housing stock and ageing populations are expected to decline. State-level budget problems, the increasing popularity of home/private schooling, and school choice laws at the local level have resulted in extreme uncertainty about the expected enrolment levels at individual schools in some districts. Santa Barbara city schools provide an excellent example of enrolment instability and the costs associated with poor enrolment forecasts. The associated costs include consternation among employees due to last minute hires or reassignments, community unrest as school closures are threatened or carried out, and ineffective capital planning/allocation. This research uses student-level records from the Santa Barbara city schools to evaluate the nature of the instability in past enrolment forecasts. The primary objective of the paper is to propose and to evaluate a Multiregional Cohort-Enrolment projection model that we believe is better suited to prevailing enrolment policies. Although the model as proposed still requires further refinements, it appears promising as a forecasting and policy evaluation tool in districts that are increasing the level of school choice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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