| Popis: |
The short-term load forecasting horizon is characterized by studies ranging from a day to a few months ahead, directly related to the operation planning, like Unit Commitment, in generation. There is an inherent error in the load forecasting methods, once the infinitesimal possibility of consumption conditions, in the same time. This error can be interpreted as Underestimation, in which the forecast load is less than real load, or Overestimation, where the forecast load is higher than real load. To Correlate the error with operations costs is one challenge due high variable of operations costs and regulatory patterns of different regions. Thus, the objective of the present work is developed an analysis around the problem short-term load forecast cost error and propose a methodology for estimation of these costs in relation to the Unit Commitment and Multi-Regional power flow. The linear programming model is applied in an IEEE 9 Bus test system. |
