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In 2011, a massive phytoplankton bloom was observed in the Chukchi Sea under first-year sea ice (FYI), an environment in which primary productivity (PP) has historically been low. In this paper, we use a 1-D biological model of the Chukchi shelf ecosystem, in conjunction with in situ chemical and physiological data, to better understand the conditions that facilitated the development of such an unprecedented bloom. In addition, to assess the effects of changing Arctic environmental conditions on net PP (NPP), we perform model runs with varying sea ice and snow thickness, timing of melt, melt ponds, and biological parameters. Results from model runs with conditions similar to 2011 indicate that first-year ice (FYI) with at least 10% melt pond coverage transmits sufficient light to support the growth of shade-adapted Arctic phytoplankton. Increasing pond fraction by 20% enhanced peak under-ice NPP by 26% and produced rates more comparable to those measured during the 2011 bloom, but there was no effect of further increasing pond fraction. One of the important consequences of large under-ice blooms is that they consume a substantial fraction of surface nutrients such that NPP is greatly diminished in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) following ice retreat, where NPP has historically been the highest. In contrast, in model runs with |
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