Early Detection of Cyclogenesis Signature Using Global Model Products

Autor:	Pradip K. Pal, Sanjeev Kumar Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal, Randhir Singh
Rok vydání:	2014
Předmět:	Global Forecast System Meteorology Weather forecasting Storm Vorticity computer.software_genre Tropical cyclogenesis Climatology Cyclogenesis General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science Tropical cyclone forecast model Electrical and Electronic Engineering Tropical cyclone computer
Zdroj:	IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 52:5116-5121
ISSN:	1558-0644 0196-2892
DOI:	10.1109/tgrs.2013.2286900
Popis:	High-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS) model products are used to detect the earliest tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) signature over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). In order to identify the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the model forecast fields, three parameters, namely, low-level relative vorticity, genesis potential parameter, and wind circulation pattern matching index, are examined in this paper. The detection of TCG in the GFS model is performed for 14 TCs that developed in the NIO during the 2008-2011 period. The results show that the wind circulation pattern matching index provides the most reliable guidance (high probability of detection, i.e., approximately 0.92, in a 24-h forecast with relatively few false alarms) for identifying TC formation over the NIO.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::6e103d14e13b0db48e47d49ee7eaafea https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.2013.2286900 Zobrazit plný text záznamu