Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia
| Autor: | Sadok Chlif, Wafa Aissi, Jihene Bettaieb, Ghassen Kharroubi, Meriam Nouira, Rihab Yazidi, A. El Moussi, L. Maazaoui, A. Slim, Afif Ben Salah, null Influenza Surveillance Group in Tunisia |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Estimation education.field_of_study medicine.medical_specialty Surveillance data business.industry Population virus diseases General Medicine 030112 virology law.invention Seasonal influenza 03 medical and health sciences Transmission (mechanics) law Epidemiology Medicine business education Demography |
| Zdroj: | Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal. 22:459-466 |
| ISSN: | 1020-3397 |
| DOI: | 10.26719/2016.22.7.459 |
| Popis: | The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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