The Impact of the Estimation of the Parameters Values on the Accuracy of Predicting the Impacts of Mining Exploitation / Wpływ Oszacowania Wartości Parametrów Modelu Na Dokładność Prognozowania Wpływów Eksploatacji Górniczej

Autor: Z. Niedojadło, Wojciech Gruszczyński
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Zdroj: Archives of Mining Sciences. 60:173-193
ISSN: 1689-0469
DOI: 10.1515/amsc-2015-0012
Popis: The possibility of the assessment of the probability that the acceptable values of deformation indexes will be exceeded and the introduction of the coefficient of safety are more and more seriously considered in case of predicting the impacts of exploitation both on the surface and the shaft tube. This article presents the mentioned above issue focusing on the authors’ project of the exploitation in the protective pillars of the shafts of the Legnica and Głogów Copper Area (LGOM). To assess the accuracy of the predicted deformation indexes Monte Carlo method (often used in statistics) was proposed as well as the strict and approximate analysis using the law of error propagation. The values of vertical strains were analysed, as the most important at the assessment of the state of deformation of the shaft tube. The comparison of the results obtained with different methods confirmed the correctness of the carried out calculations. The applied methods allowed the analysis of the impact of individual parameters of the model on the prediction of the accuracy of forecast. This article makes the continuation of the solutions of the article (Niedojadło & Gruszczyński, 2010) thus some contents essential for the continuity of understanding were repeated here.
Databáze: OpenAIRE