Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach
| Autor: | Davood Manzoor, Vahid Aryanpur |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
Combined cycle 020209 energy 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Power sector 01 natural sciences Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering law.invention Electric power system law 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Electrical and Electronic Engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Civil and Structural Engineering business.industry Mechanical Engineering Environmental resource management Building and Construction Environmental economics Energy planning Pollution General Energy Electricity generation Fuel efficiency Key (cryptography) Renewable technologies business |
| Zdroj: | Energy. 140:330-339 |
| ISSN: | 0360-5442 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.096 |
| Popis: | This paper provides an overview of the power sector development in Iran for the period 1984–2014. A retrospective optimization approach is applied to assess economic and environmental benefits that would have been achieved through appropriate long-term planning. MESSAGE, a systems engineering optimization model, is used for this analysis. Two alternative scenarios are defined to explore the impact of supply- and demand-side strategies on the power generation mix, fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. The focus on the past choice of energy scenarios provides some insights for future scenario design. The results of the cost-optimal scenarios with international fuel prices are compared with the actual historical development. The findings indicate that the demand-side strategies are key drivers in achieving a low-carbon generation mix. Least-cost scenarios would favor much more combined cycle, renewable technologies and distributed electricity generation units, and less gas turbine than the actual transition pathway. Long-term energy planning would have reduced the cumulative total power system costs by $21-$90 billion. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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