| Autor: |
Bayo Oguntona, Vincent Eme, Adagogo J. Jaja |
| Rok vydání: |
2016 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
All Days. |
| DOI: |
10.2118/184251-ms |
| Popis: |
Overtime the reliability of production forecast had been a major challenge in the oil industry. Reliable production forecast is critical part of planning and decision making in the oil and gas industry. Only about 45% of production forecast meet its target rate and reserves. With oil prices fluctuation there is huge value to be created in production forecast numbers that are reliable for business plan purpose. Area A has wells under natural production, artificial lift (gas lift) and reservoirs under waterflood. The field historical oil production span over 50 years. Clearly there is need for reliable production forecast for business plan for these matured fields. Up to 2011 field decline rates (determined from field decline curve analysis (DCA)) and the current production rates were used for production forecast. The use of this method showed actual oil production outside the forecasted production range at the confidence level of P10 and P90. To improve the production forecast reliability to be within the range of confidence level of P10 to P90 the methodology was reviewed and a new method was proposed to determine the field decline rate using roll-up of well by well decline rate by statistical method and incorporate uncertainties in the production start rate range. This paper will share the applicability of roll-up well by well decline rate to determine field decline rates used for a reliable production forecast range confidence level (P10, P50 and P90) for short term business plan by incorporating the uncertainties from known historical planned and unplanned downtime. The result from this method showed improvement in production forecast by actual production always within the range of P10 to P90 in the last three years. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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