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Successful risk communication strategies depend upon first understanding how people process complex risk information. In the context of the coronavirus, decision-makers must take into account both the risk to themselves as well as the risk to others they may infect, if they contract the coronavirus. There are numerous cognitive issues associated with this process that at present are not well understood. In particular, how do people understand related but differing risk estimates? How do they use that information to make precautionary decisions that impact themselves as well as others? This project will conduct a series of online studies to determine how people perceive coronavirus risks, separately and in combination, as well as how risk perception impacts their precautionary decisions. Perhaps more importantly, based on preliminary surveys, understandable risk communication expressions will be developed and tested experimentally to establish causal links between information expression and risk perception, trust, and decisions. Finally, using a few relevant individual difference measures, we will determine whether specific abilities are necessary to process complex numeric risk expressions and whether simplified expressions are better in some cases. The results of this work will allow us to provide invaluable advice with the potential to save lives. This research can inform best practices in risk communication that have important implications for communicating risks in future outbreaks to avoid the overwhelming situation the world now faces. Understanding how best to communicate risks to the public and whether communication should be tailored to specific subgroups, is critical to avoiding future pandemics. |
