FACETs: A Proposed Next-Generation Paradigm for High-Impact Weather Forecasting
Autor: | Gregory J. Stumpf, David R. Novak, Lans P. Rothfusz, Kimberly E. Klockow-McClain, Russell S. Schneider, Alan Gerard, Chris Karstens, Travis M. Smith |
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Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Engineering 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences business.industry 0208 environmental biotechnology Weather forecasting 02 engineering and technology computer.software_genre 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Transport engineering Research council NIST business computer 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 99:2025-2043 |
ISSN: | 1520-0477 0003-0007 |
Popis: | Recommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and Weather-Ready Nation workshop participants have encouraged the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the broader weather enterprise to explore and expand the use of probabilistic information to convey weather forecast uncertainty. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a concept being explored by NOAA to address those recommendations and also potentially shift the National Weather Service (NWS) from (primarily) teletype-era, deterministic watch–warning products to high-resolution, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) spanning periods from days (and longer) to within minutes of high-impact weather and water events. FACETs simultaneously i) considers a reinvention of the NWS hazard forecasting and communication paradigm so as to deliver multiscale, user-specific probabilistic guidance from numerical weather prediction ensembles and ii) provides a comprehensive framework to organize the physical, social, and behavioral sciences, the technology, and the practices needed to achieve that reinvention. The first applications of FACETs have focused on thunderstorm phenomena, but the FACETs concept is envisioned to extend to the attributes of any environmental hazards that can be described probabilistically (e.g., winter, tropical, and aviation weather). This paper introduces the FACETs vision, the motivation for its creation, the research and development under way to explore that vision, its relevance to operational forecasting and society, and possible strategies for implementation. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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