Predicting Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients in A Low-Resources Setting

Autor: Eduardo Vásconez-González, Santiago Xavier Aguayo-Moscoso, Evelyn E. Castro-Reyes, Wendy Tercero-Martínez, Lenin Stalin Saltos, Fernando Jara, Christian Mora-Coello, Mario Montalvo, Glenda Jiménez-Alulima, Esteban Ortiz-Prado, Estefanía Irigoyen-Mogro, Jorge Luis Vélez-Páez
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Popis: Background Since its molecular isolation on January 7, 2020, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, taking governments worldwide off-guard. The virus arrived in low and middle-income countries violently, especially in Latin America. Ecuador received the worst outbreak in the world if we count excess mortality per capita. Although one study has reported the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 in Ecuador, there is no clinical course or outcome data among intensive care patients with COVID-19 in Ecuador. This study describes the clinical, epidemiological, and therapeutical features of 89 patients hospitalized in a secondary-level hospital in Quito, Ecuador. Methods We did a retrospective cohort study. We collected health records data from adult patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in Quito, Ecuador, during the first five months of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Ecuador. All patients had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 RNA infection diagnostic, a positive real-time RT-PCR, and pulmonary imaging suggesting COVID-19. We used the Chi-square test or a Fisher's exact statistic to analyze risk and associations between survivors and non-survivors due to COVID-19. We used the ROC curve analysis to predict mortality, determining cut-off points for the parameters related to mechanical, analytical, and cytometry ventilation. At the multivariate level, we used the Wald test to evaluate model categorical predictors during the regression analysis. Results 89 patients with COVID-19 were recruited during the study. The average age of the patients was 54.72 years. Man represented 68.54% (n = 61) and women 31,46% (n = 28). Significant differences were observed in terms of mortality (men 40.98% vs. women 17.76%). Serological parameters demonstrated that LDH and IL-6 at 24 hours were higher among non-survivors when compared with survivors. Persistent hypercapnia ( > > 45 mmHg), a PaFiO2 ratio of less than 140 mmHg, and a positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) titration greater than nine mmHg were also associated with higher mortality. Conclusions Increased levels of LDH at 24 hours, IL-6, the lymphocyte and platelet count at 48 hours, the neutrophil count at 48 hours, and the INL are factors associated with higher motility, increased risk of failed extubation and reintubation
Databáze: OpenAIRE