| Popis: |
This paper analyses the causal effect of grade retention on students’ high school track decisions in Italy. Using longitudinal administrative data, we propose a matching strategy to assess the impact of retention in institutional settings with substantial leeway in the promotion/retention decision. If decision makers differ in their propensity to retain students (strictness), it is reasonable to expect some of the students kept back to be fully on a par with others who are promoted. Assuming that strictness is a school-related factor, we argue that it is not theoretically possible to find a good match within the same school. We therefore match retained students to students with a similar array of ability measures, who were promoted in schools displaying a lower degree of strictness. We find that grade retention dramatically increases school dropout rates and that the negative impact is stronger for students with poorly educated or immigrant parents. |
