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The chief use of probabilistic methods is to assess risk and opportunity, making them most applicable to situations of significant uncertainty. Hence, the cardinal sin unique to probabilistic analysis is to underestimate the range of outcomes. Unfortunately, the situations of the greatest uncertainty are also the ones where poor judgment is most likely to create unreliable results and dangerous decisions. The best judgment in probabilistic analysis is that which recognizes the full range of uncertainty by carefully framing the problem and by avoiding pitfalls which artificially reduce the range of results. |
