Quantifying the Potential Impact of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption on Government Finances
| Autor: | Chris Bachmann, Jacob Terry |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Finance
050210 logistics & transportation Potential impact Government business.industry Mechanical Engineering 05 social sciences Public sector 0211 other engineering and technologies 021107 urban & regional planning 02 engineering and technology 0502 economics and business Transportation industry Business Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2673:72-83 |
| ISSN: | 2169-4052 0361-1981 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0361198119837218 |
| Popis: | There is some understanding that autonomous vehicles will disrupt public sector policies and the existing transportation industry, but this disruption is often loosely defined and tends to ignore how it would affect governments financially. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify the short-term impact of introducing autonomous vehicles on government finances. The analysis focuses on eight Canadian governments, encompassing four government tiers. Public discourse and academic literature are used to generate nine predicted changes (forecast variables) in future adoption scenarios. Using the predicted rate of autonomous vehicle adoption, the remaining variables are converted into financial changes by combining them with government financial records, infrastructure inventory datasets, and project cost estimates. The results suggest that, while revenue impacts are fairly minimal, and mostly impact Canadian provinces, the cost of implementing the expected vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication upgrades could be expensive for governments with smaller populations, especially municipalities. The revenue analysis indicates the biggest shift is likely to be a loss in gas tax, which affects federal and provincial revenues, yet this share is relatively small compared with the size of these governments’ budgets. The expense analysis suggests that, although provinces have extensive road networks, the cost of upgrading all of their highways may not be unreasonable compared with their yearly revenue intake. On the other hand, municipalities would require substantial new funds to be able to make the same upgrades. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|