Improving Infill Development Decision Making with Interval Estimation
| Autor: | J. Marcus Jobe, T. Hutch Jobe |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: |
Renewable Energy
Sustainability and the Environment Interval estimation Energy Engineering and Power Technology Field (computer science) Confidence interval Fuel Technology Nuclear Energy and Engineering Benchmark (surveying) Statistics Log-normal distribution Infill Econometrics Table (database) Mathematics Weibull distribution |
| Zdroj: | Energy Exploration & Exploitation. 25:247-260 |
| ISSN: | 2048-4054 0144-5987 |
| DOI: | 10.1260/014459807783129958 |
| Popis: | Following partial completion of infill development in a given field, it becomes necessary to determine whether continued drilling should be pursued in the same field. The usual approaches for deciding whether to continue drilling (Swanson's mean or estimates based on lognormal methods) fail to account for variation and uncertainty. To better inform this decision, we propose implementing statistical confidence intervals (with an accompanying certainty level) for relevant features of interest. Closed form intervals and maximum likelihood based intervals for the average ultimate recovery for all wells in a field, the percent of wells in a field having ultimate recovery values above a certain benchmark value and other important features of interest are considered. Confidence intervals appropriate for both the lognormal and Weibull distribution are given. The proposed methods are illustrated with real data from 64 wells in the Devonian Richfield Dolomite of the Michigan basin (given in the appendix, Table 2). Table 1 summarizes the different confidence intervals. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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