WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds
| Autor: | Richard L. Thompson, Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey, Andrew R. Dean, Bryan T. Smith, Douglas A. Speheger, Christopher D. Karstens |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology 0207 environmental engineering Environmental science 02 engineering and technology Tornado intensity and damage Tornado 020701 environmental engineering 01 natural sciences Wind speed 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Weather and Forecasting. 35:2479-2492 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/waf-d-20-0010.1 |
| Popis: | The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has developed a database of damage-surveyed tornadoes in the contiguous United States (2009–17) that relates environmental and radar-derived storm attributes to damage ratings that change during a tornado life cycle. Damage indicators (DIs), and the associated wind speed estimates from tornado damage surveys compiled in the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT) dataset, were linked to the nearest manual calculations of 0.5° tilt angle maximum rotational velocity Vrot from single-site WSR-88D data. For each radar scan, the maximum wind speed from the highest-rated DI, Vrot, and the significant tornado parameter (STP) from the SPC hourly objective mesoscale analysis archive were recorded and analyzed. Results from examining Vrot and STP data indicate an increasing conditional probability for higher-rated DIs (i.e., EF-scale wind speed estimate) as both STP and Vrot increase. This work suggests that tornadic wind speed exceedance probabilities can be estimated in real time, on a scan-by-scan basis, via Vrot and STP for ongoing tornadoes. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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