Probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts of the Citarum River, Indonesia, based on general circulation models
| Autor: | Netrananda Sahu, Ram Babu Singh, Andrew W. Robertson, Swadhin K. Behera, Manish Kumar, Kaoru Takara, David G. DeWitt, Rizaldi Boer |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Environmental Engineering
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology Flood forecasting Probabilistic logic Regression analysis GCM transcription factors 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient 020801 environmental engineering symbols.namesake Climatology General Circulation Model Streamflow symbols Environmental Chemistry Environmental science Precipitation Safety Risk Reliability and Quality 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science Water Science and Technology |
| Zdroj: | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 31:1747-1758 |
| ISSN: | 1436-3259 1436-3240 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00477-016-1297-4 |
| Popis: | In this study we discuss probabilistic forecasts of Citarum River streamflow, which supplies 80 % of the water demands in Jakarta, Indonesia, based on general circulation model (GCM) output, for the September–November (SON) season. Retrospective forecasts of precipitation made over the period 1982–2010 with two coupled-ocean atmosphere GCMs, initialized in August, are used in conjunction historical streamflow records, with a cross-validated regression model. Pearson’s product moment correlation skill values of 0.58–0.67 are obtained, with relative operating characteristic scores of 0.67–0.84 and 0.74–0.92 for the lower and upper tercile categories of flows respectively. Both GCMs thus demonstrate promising ability to forecast below/above normal streamflow for the Citarum River flow during the SON season. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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