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By 2021, the nature of the key factors that will determine the dynamics of the EU–China relations in the medium term has become clearer. The pandemic accelerated many ongoing processes in the world, revealed “weak points” in national and regional economies and security, and exposed the true intentions of international actors. The authors proceed from the working hypothesis that an ideologized rigid approach with elements of pragmatism will dominate in the EU–China relations in the post-crisis period. The balance in the formula of these relations “partner, competitor, rival” will significantly depend on the position of the United States, as well as the European Union’s compliance with the “bloc discipline”. Competition in the field of technology will be of key importance, but the struggle for political and ideological leadership in the changing world order will also become more acute. The political response of the EU and China to technological challenges will represent a mix of protectionism and neo-techno-nationalism. Politicians in the European Union feel that toughness toward Beijing is well received by the voters. At the same time, the EU member states diverge in their approaches to China, although the efforts are made to harmonise policies both in the European Union and in the transatlantic community. In its turn, the PRC feels more confident in the technological and political competition. The pace of China catching up with the technological abilities of the EU is impressive, though significant gaps remain. Beijing does not have intentions of de-coupling from the West and keeps a strong interest in being present in the EU markets, but it becomes more selective with regard to foreign investments at home. Meanwhile, the global shift of world politics to Asia will require adjustment on the part of the European Union. A possible approach already tested in expert discussions is further engagement with trading partners and blocs in the region, especially the newly established Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The EU–China relations and their influence, in particular, on Russia were the subject of case study organized by the Center for Situational Analysis of IMEMO RAN. For details see: Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal, 2021, no. 2. (Available at: https:// www.afjournal.ru/index.php?page_id=464#). |
