Forecasting petroleum consumption in China: comparison of three models

Autor:	L. Q. Ji
Rok vydání:	2011
Předmět:	Fuel Technology Coefficient of determination Mean absolute percentage error Goodness of fit Mean squared error Gompertz function Statistics Energy Engineering and Power Technology Sigmoid function Logistic regression Statistic Mathematics
Zdroj:	Journal of the Energy Institute. 84:34-37
ISSN:	1746-0220 1743-9671
Popis:	There have been a number of forecasting models based on various sigmoidal growth models. This paper investigates the effectiveness of the four‐parameter logistic model, the Gompertz–Laird model and the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model for describing the evolution of petroleum consumption in China. The three sigmoidal growth models are applied to the historical data on petroleum consumption in China. The developed models are compared using the goodness‐of‐fit to the historical data. The selected statistical measures are the coefficient of determination R2, the mean squared error, the mean absolute percentage error, the mean absolute deviation and the Durbin–Watson statistic d. The good model fit has indicated that the four‐parameter logistic model is a very appropriate candidate in forecasting petroleum consumption in China.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::5e77fdd93a274ccc0630102b5b201bd2 https://doi.org/10.1179/014426011x12901840102526 Zobrazit plný text záznamu