Oil shocks and the US terms of trade: gauging the role of the trade channel

Autor:	Alessandro Maravalle
Rok vydání:	2013
Předmět:	Macroeconomics Economics and Econometrics Shock (economics) Demand shock Oil supply Economics Oil price Terms of trade Communication channel
Zdroj:	Applied Economics Letters. 20:152-156
ISSN:	1466-4291 1350-4851
DOI:	10.1080/13504851.2012.684779
Popis:	Recent theoretical literature claims that demand-driven transmission mechanisms are the key to understand how oil shocks affect the economy. Following this literature, we measure the economic strength of one of these demand-driven channels, the trade channel, in the transmission of oil shocks to the US economy. We use Kilian's (2009) decomposition of oil price shocks to identify three possible sources of oil shocks: oil supply, oil-market specific demand and global demand shocks. We then estimate the impact of each shock on the US terms of trade controlling for nonlinear effects in the sign and the size of the shocks. All oil shocks have persistent and statistically significant effects on the US terms of trade. However, we find that only oil supply shocks have an impact on the terms of trade that is nonlinear in the size of the shock. This last result is in accordance with the theoretical findings in Maravalle (forthcoming).
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::5bbdc3e85893a9fa1273443a03413fba https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.684779 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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