Development of a Human–Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events
| Autor: | Kristin M. Calhoun, Daphne LaDue, Travis M. Smith, John L. Cintineo, Tiffany C. Meyer, Lans P. Rothfusz, Alan Gerard, David Harrison, Christopher D. Karstens, Jonathan P. Wolfe, James Correia |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Nowcasting Meteorology Testbed Probabilistic logic 02 engineering and technology National weather service 01 natural sciences Hazard 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Thunderstorm Environmental science 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Human–machine system Tornado 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Weather and Forecasting. 33:715-737 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/waf-d-17-0188.1 |
| Popis: | Providing advance warning for impending severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, hail, wind) fundamentally requires an ability to predict and/or detect these hazards and subsequently communicate their potential threat in real time. The National Weather Service (NWS) provides advance warning for severe convective weather through the issuance of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, a system that has remained relatively unchanged for approximately the past 65 years. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) proposes a reinvention of this system, transitioning from a deterministic product-centric paradigm to one based on probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for hazardous weather events. Four years of iterative development and rapid prototyping in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) with NWS forecasters and partners has yielded insights into this new paradigm by discovering efficient ways to generate, inform, and utilize a continuous flow of information through the development of a human–machine mix. Forecasters conditionally used automated object-based guidance within four levels of automation to issue deterministic products containing PHI. Forecasters accomplished this task in a timely manner while focusing on communication and conveying forecast confidence, elements considered necessary by emergency managers. Observed annual increases in the usage of first-guess probabilistic guidance by forecasters were related to improvements made to the prototyped software, guidance, and techniques. However, increasing usage of automation requires improvements in guidance, data integration, and data visualization to garner trust more effectively. Additional opportunities exist to address limitations in procedures for motion derivation and geospatial mapping of subjective probability. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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