Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach
Autor: | Witold-Roger Poganietz, Patrick Hansen, Sigrid Prehofer, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Stefan Vögele |
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Rok vydání: | 2017 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
020209 energy Energy (esotericism) 02 engineering and technology Energy transition 01 natural sciences Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Scenario analysis Electrical and Electronic Engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Civil and Structural Engineering Energy demand business.industry Mechanical Engineering Environmental resource management Building and Construction Energy consumption Work in process Environmental economics Pollution Trend analysis General Energy Balance (accounting) business |
Zdroj: | Energy. 120:937-946 |
ISSN: | 0360-5442 |
Popis: | A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and demographic structure, expenditures, cost of energy-saving measures, willingness to invest, and level of coordination in international climate policy). In our study, we introduce a multilevel cross-impact approach which allows for the definition and quantification of data for scenario analysis while taking the interdependences between different factors on the global, national and sectoral levels into account. This approach makes it possible to overcome limitations that conventional energy models are usually confronted with. By applying a trend analysis in combination with information on the interdependence of relevant factors on the global and national levels, consistent sectoral views of the private household's future are created. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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