| Popis: |
China is in the midst of four types of structural transformations command to market, agricultural to manufacturing and services, high fertility cum low longevity to low fertility cum high longevity, and closed to open. The last of these has been occurring for over two decades, and will accelerate with World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. In the short and medium term, the changes that will result from joining the WTO, though significant in themselves, are modest in comparison to the trend resource reallocations that are already taking place due to the four continuing types of transformation. In general, the agricultural sector will suffer some disruptions, particularly in employment, though labor dislocations can be more serious in certain capital-intensive manufacturing sectors. Over the longer term, Chinese agriculture will develop along lines of its comparative advantage. Depending on the roles of foreign direct investment, local protectionism, and the private sector, industrial growth will either stagnate or grow rapidly. In all scenarios, Chinese trade with the Asian region will grow rapidly, especially in grain, textiles and apparel, automobiles, and electronics, and there will be a boom in domestic services. China's share of world trade may double. |
