Consumer Attitudes and Their Forecasting Power for Consumer Spending

Autor:	Michelle L. Barnes, Giovanni P. Olivei
Rok vydání:	2017
Předmět:	Consumption (economics) Economics and Econometrics 050208 finance Index (economics) Public economics business.industry Survey of Professional Forecasters media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences Consumer spending Interest rate Microeconomics Accounting 0502 economics and business Retail banking Economics Consumer confidence index 050207 economics business Set (psychology) Finance media_common
Zdroj:	Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 49:1031-1058
ISSN:	0022-2879
DOI:	10.1111/jmcb.12404
Popis:	The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers is summarized with principal components of consumer attitudes with respect to income and wealth, prices, and interest rates and credit availability. These summary measures contain information beyond that captured by the Index of Consumer Sentiment. The summary measures have forecasting power for aggregate consumption behavior, even when controlling for economic fundamentals. These measures also help to improve significantly upon Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip Consensus, and Federal Reserve Board's forecasts of consumption and other real activity measures, consistent with their predictive ability conditioned upon a broader set of fundamentals and forecasters’ judgment.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::534be0fd5e916bd102190b091bb184de https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12404 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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