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Summary Achimov deposits of Urengoy field contains the main gas reserves within considered license block, however they are characterized by a complex geological structure. That’s why it’s especially important purpose to estimate possible uncertainties and risks in the reserves and the forecasted profiles of hydrocarbon production. Uncertainty analysis allows to create of the set of geological model’s realization, considering main risks and allowing to estimate the range of uncertainty and probability of the hydrocarbon reserves by reference to the features of Achimov deposits geological structure. Sequence of work on the uncertainty analysis of geological model includes: creating of the base geological model (form workflow); definition of the base parameters, which bring in uncertainty in the model, and range of their uncertainty; uncertainty analysis of the hydrocarbon reserves to changes in parameters; choosing of the most influential parameters; multiversion calculation. In the result of work range of changes in Achimov deposits gas reserves and range of changes in the main volumetric parameters were justified, besides 300 realizations of geological model were calculated, which can be used as a base for hydrodynamic calculations, for planning of drilling location of projected wells and for making of further research program of reservoir. |
