Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities

Autor:	Hiroki Yamamoto, Keiichi Goshima, Hiroshi Ishijima, Mototsugu Shintani
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Inflation Economics and Econometrics Nowcasting media_common.quotation_subject Probability and statistics Newspaper Economic indicator Econometrics Business cycle Construct (philosophy) Phillips curve Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Analysis media_common
Zdroj:	Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. 25:111-133
ISSN:	1558-3708
DOI:	10.1515/snde-2019-0117
Popis:	We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::48f51872427151affba289af751315bd https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2019-0117 Zobrazit plný text záznamu