Partisanship, Militarized International Conflict, and Electoral Support for the Incumbent
| Autor: | Jaroslav Tir, Shane P. Singh |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
International conflict
021110 strategic defence & security studies Sociology and Political Science Punishment media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences 0211 other engineering and technologies Comparative politics Hostility 02 engineering and technology 0506 political science Politics Scholarship Argument Political science Political economy 050602 political science & public administration medicine Voting behavior Economic system medicine.symptom media_common |
| Zdroj: | Political Research Quarterly. 71:172-183 |
| ISSN: | 1938-274X 1065-9129 |
| Popis: | Comparative politics scholarship often neglects to consider how militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) shape political behavior. In this project, we advance an argument that considers voter responses to international conflict at the individual level. In particular, we consider how the well-known conditioning effects of partisanship manifest in relation to militarized international conflict. Examining individual- and macro-level data across ninety-seven elections in forty-two countries over the 1996–2011 period, we find consistent evidence of militarized conflict impacting vote choice. This relationship is, however, moderated by partisanship, conflict side (initiator or target), and conflict hostility level. Among non-copartisan voters, the incumbent benefits the most electorally from initiating low-hostility MIDs or when the country is a target of a high-hostility MID; the opposite scenarios (initiator of a high-hostility MID or target of a low-hostility MID) lead to punishment among this voter group. Copartisans, meanwhile, tend to either maintain or intensify their support in most scenarios we examine; when a country is targeted in a low-hostility MID, copartisan support erodes mildly. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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