Uncertainty estimates for surface runoff models

Autor: R.H. McCuen, T.V. Hromadka
Rok vydání: 1988
Předmět:
Zdroj: Advances in Water Resources. 11:2-14
ISSN: 0309-1708
DOI: 10.1016/0309-1708(88)90016-4
Popis: A lower bound for variance in surface runoff modelling estimates is advanced. The bound is derived using a linear unit hydrograph approach which utilizes a discretization of the catchment into an arbitrary number of subareas, a linear routing technique for channel flow effects, a variable effective rainfall distribution over the catchment, and calibration parameter distributions developed in correlating rainfall-runoff data by the model. The uncertainty bound reflects the dominating influence of the unknown rainfall distribution over the catchment and is expressed as a distribution function that can be reduced only by supplying additional rainfall-runoff data. It is recommended that this uncertainty distribution in modelling results be included in flood control design studies in order to incorporate a prescribed level of confidence in flood protection facilities.
Databáze: OpenAIRE