| Autor: |
Timothy Shaw, Tanghua Li, Trina Ng, Niamh Cahill, Stephen Chua, Jedrzej Majewski, Yudhish Nathan, Greg Garner, Robert Kopp, Till Hanebuth, Adam Switzer, Benjamin Horton |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| DOI: |
10.21203/rs.3.rs-2157980/v1 |
| Popis: |
Low-lying equatorial islands are susceptible to relative sea level (RSL) rise. Here, we quantify magnitudes and rates of RSL change since the last glacial maximum (LGM) to provide probability perspectives of future sea level. Geological reconstructions and instrumental records from the Sunda Shelf and Singapore show RSL rose ~ 121 m at rates up to ~ 15 mm/yr since the LGM, which reduced the paleogeographic landscape by ~ 2.3 million km2. In the 20th century, RSL began to rise, increasing at a rate of ~ 1.7 mm/yr to ~ 2.2 mm/yr between 1915 and 2020 CE. Future projections under a moderate emissions scenario show RSL rising 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150 which has only been exceeded (at least 99% probability) during rapid ice melting events ~ 14.5 and ~ 9 thousand years ago. Future projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating low confidence ice-sheet processes, however, have no precedent since the LGM. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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