Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in Shenzhen from present to future
| Autor: | Edmond Y.M. Lo, Tinger Zhu, Wei Jian, Tso-Chien Pan, Gizem Mestav Sarica |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Hydrology
Pearl river delta 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Flood myth River flood Geography Planning and Development Storm surge Storm Built-up area 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law 01 natural sciences Metropolitan area Urban Studies Flood risk management Architecture Environmental science 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Nature and Landscape Conservation |
| Zdroj: | Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science. 48:1011-1024 |
| ISSN: | 2399-8091 2399-8083 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/2399808321991540 |
| Popis: | The Pearl River Delta metropolitan region is one of the most densely urbanized megapolises worldwide with high exposure to weather-related disasters such as storms, storm surges and river floods. Shenzhen megacity has been the fastest growing city in the Pearl River Delta region with a significant increase of resident population from 0.32 million in 1980 to 13.03 million in 2018. Being a flood-prone city, Shenzhen’s rapid urbanization has further exacerbated potential flood losses and forthcoming risk. Thus, evaluating the changes in its exposure from present to future is essential for flood risk assessment, mitigation and management purposes. The main objective of this study is to present a methodology to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure from present to future using high-resolution and open-source data with a particular focus on the built-up area. To achieve this, the SLEUTH model, a cellular automata-based urban growth model, was employed for predicting the built-up area in Shenzhen in 2030. An almost threefold increase was observed in total built-up area from 421 km2 in 1995 to 1166 km2 in 2030, with the 2016 built-up area being 858 km2. Built-up areas, both present (2016) and projected (2030), were then used as the land cover input for flood hazard assessment based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, which classified the flood hazard into five levels. The analysis indicates that the built-up area subjected to the two highest flood hazard levels will increase by almost 88% (212 km2) from present to future. The approach presented here can be leveraged by policymakers to identify critical areas that should be prioritized for flood mitigation and protection actions to minimize potential losses. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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