| Autor: |
Malka N. Halgamuge, Thas Nirmalathas, Thrishantha Nanayakkara, Isuri Wijesundera |
| Rok vydání: |
2016 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me? ISBN: 9789811011115 |
| DOI: |
10.1007/978-981-10-1113-9_3 |
| Popis: |
The prediction of \({\textit{MFPT}}\) in the propagation of cyclone induced flood is comprehensively discussed in this chapter as a special case study to gain an entrance to a more generic study in the proceeding chapters. The inhomogeneity in terrain is addressed using a novel concept of dividing the terrain into geographic primitives (GPs) identified through flood propagation vector fields. A modularised approach including a Bayesian framework is followed allowing easy and flexible assimilation of data and integration of outputs from other models when they become available. Simultaneous events distributed in the environment leading to biased propagation are encapsulated into transition probability matrices (TPM) allowing efficient real time predictions via computation through a Markov chain. Comparative studies using real datasets show the models ability of predicting up to 3 h ahead of official forecasts with a 33 % improvement of accuracy when compared to other models currently used. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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