Will Changes in Gay Men's Sexual Behavior Reduce Syphilis Rates?
| Autor: | Richard Gray, Ian Down, Basil Donovan, Alexander Hoare, Garrett Prestage, Pol Dominic McCann, Jack Bradley, David Wilson |
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| Rok vydání: | 2011 |
| Předmět: |
Microbiology (medical)
Potential impact education.field_of_study Transmission (medicine) business.industry Population Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Psychological intervention Dermatology medicine.disease law.invention Infectious Diseases Sexual behavior Condom law Intervention (counseling) medicine Syphilis education business Demography |
| Zdroj: | Sexually Transmitted Diseases. 38:1151-1158 |
| ISSN: | 0148-5717 |
| DOI: | 10.1097/olq.0b013e318238b85d |
| Popis: | BACKGROUND Reducing rates of partner change and increasing condom usage among gay men are obvious targets for potentially reducing syphilis transmission among gay men. METHODS We developed an agent-based stochastic model to examine syphilis transmission among a population of gay men, representative of gay men in Australia. This model was used to explore the potential impact of changes in sexual behavior over 1 month, 3 month, and indefinite time frames on syphilis epidemics. RESULTS Simulations of interventions showed that short-term reductions in rates of partner change and increased condom use would have negligible impact on the long-term trends of syphilis epidemics. If no interventions are introduced, then the model forecasts that the syphilis prevalence in the population could continue to rise, with an increase of 80% in the number of men infected with syphilis during the next decade. However, if changes in sexual behavior are maintained in the long-term, then syphilis epidemics can be mitigated. If condom use is sustained at 80% in partnerships that are HIV discordant or of unknown status, then the prevalence of syphilis is estimated to decrease by 9% over 10 years. Similarly, if partner acquisition rates decrease by 25%, then there will be a 22% reduction in syphilis prevalence. CONCLUSIONS Interventions promoting partner reduction or increased condom use would be ineffective in the short-term, and would have limited prospects for success in the long-term unless very large changes in behavior are sustained. Complementary social research indicates that such long-term changes in behavior are unlikely to be adopted, and therefore other intervention strategies need to be developed to reduce syphilis among gay men. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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