Extreme Threshold Failures Within a Heterogeneous Elastic Thin Sheet and the Spatial-Temporal Development of Induced Seismicity Within the Groningen Gas Field
| Autor: | S. J. Oates, Stephen Bourne |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences business.industry Observable Fault (geology) Induced seismicity 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Physics::Geophysics Natural gas field Current (stream) Geophysics Space and Planetary Science Geochemistry and Petrology Natural gas Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Extraction (military) Transient (oscillation) business human activities Geology Seismology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 122:10-10,320 |
| ISSN: | 2169-9313 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/2017jb014356 |
| Popis: | Measurements of the strains and earthquakes induced by fluid extraction from a subsurface reservoir reveal a transient, exponential-like increase in seismicity relative to the volume of fluids extracted. If the frictional strength of these re-activating faults is heterogeneously and randomly distributed, then progressive failures of the weakest fault patches account in a general manner for this initial exponential-like trend. Allowing for the observable elastic and geometric heterogeneity of the reservoir, the spatio-temporal evolution of induced seismicity over 5 years is predictable without significant bias using a statistical-physics model of poro-elastic reservoir deformations inducing extreme threshold frictional failures of previously inactive faults. This model is used to forecast the temporal and spatial probability density of earthquakes within the Groningen natural gas reservoir, conditional on future gas production plans. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments based on these forecasts inform the current gas production policy and building strengthening plans. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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