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There is limited research on travel behaviors using longitudinal cohorts. Longitudinal studies on people who do not travel overseas as latent tourists have also rarely been attempted. This study investigated whether latent tourists substitute overseas travel with other leisure activities, such as domestic travel or day trips. Data from the National Survey of Tourism, collected between 2004 and 2016, were used. Twenty-one subgroups of tourists were identified based on birth cohort and household income level. The Bayesian logit model, which is suitable for longitudinal data, was used. The results of the analysis show that 1) domestic travel tends to be a complement to, rather than a substitute for, overseas travel, 2) day trips are substitutes for overseas travel for the younger generations, and 3) day trips were complements to overseas travel for older generations. This study allows tourism policymakers and marketers to establish new policies and strategies to improve the tourism industry. |
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