‘Estimating tomorrow’s tourist arrivals’: forecasting the demand for China’s tourism using the general-to-specific approach

Autor:	Shanshan Lin, Julian K. Ayeh
Rok vydání:	2011
Předmět:	Demand management Price elasticity of demand Government Econometric model Economy Tourism Leisure and Hospitality Management Geography Planning and Development Regional science Economics Demand forecasting Destinations China Tourism
Zdroj:	Tourism and Hospitality Research. 11:197-206
ISSN:	1742-9692 1467-3584
Popis:	Accurate forecast of inbound tourism demand is vital for the tourism industry as well as government economic policy and decision making. This article sought to identify the factors which influence the demand for China’s tourism with the aid of econometric models and to generate forecasts of international tourist arrivals to China from five major long-haul source markets. Using the general-to-specific modelling approach, the demand for tourism in China by the residents of Australia, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States of America is modelled and forecasted. The empirical results indicate that the ‘word of mouth effect’, income levels in the origin country, the costs of tourism in both China and competing destinations are the crucial factors that determine the demand for China’s tourism by residents of the five origin countries. The forecasts show sluggish growth in tourist arrivals for most of the Western source markets. Findings hold implications for policy formulations.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::3b5b7c0c21e9f0656ac78ae945079046 https://doi.org/10.1177/1467358411415466 Zobrazit plný text záznamu