Reliability-based initial pavement performance deterioration modelling

Autor:	Luis Amador-Jimenez, Donath Mrawira
Rok vydání:	2011
Předmět:	Engineering International Roughness Index business.industry Bayesian probability Empirical modelling Probabilistic logic Bayesian inference computer.software_genre Bayesian statistics Mechanics of Materials Econometrics Data mining business Bayesian linear regression computer Reliability (statistics) Civil and Structural Engineering
Zdroj:	International Journal of Pavement Engineering. 12:177-186
ISSN:	1477-268X 1029-8436
DOI:	10.1080/10298436.2010.535538
Popis:	This paper presents an approach for incorporating reliability on initial performance prediction models developed from as little as two time series predictors. It employs a novel methodology to provide apparent ages as surrogate of condition and, in addition, applies multilevel Bayesian regression to calibrate mechanistic empirical models to local conditions. This paper develops an international roughness index deterministic performance model for the Costa Rica road network and, further shows the procedure for obtaining a probabilistic multilevel Bayesian model which includes distributions of the mechanistic parameters and confidence intervals for the predicted performance. Bayesian statistics are also deployed for calibrating pavement strength coefficients to local observations.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::3a9a743ec73f49f67098ee8f3dbb94ce https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2010.535538 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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