Crop–climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends

Autor: T. Mavromatis
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 120:417-432
ISSN: 1434-4483
0177-798X
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1179-y
Popis: Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop–climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978–2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8–7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4–6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from −3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m2/day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m2/day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley—the most vulnerable cereals—were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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