Welfare-at-Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model
| Autor: | Tetsuji Tanaka, Gözde Ünal, Baris Karapinar |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Computable general equilibrium
Macroeconomics Economics and Econometrics Food security 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Stochastic modelling Yield (finance) media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences Vulnerability 01 natural sciences Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) Scale (social sciences) 0502 economics and business Economics 050207 economics Welfare Value at risk 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Agricultural Economics. 69:18-34 |
| ISSN: | 0021-857X |
| DOI: | 10.1111/1477-9552.12229 |
| Popis: | Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi-regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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