| Autor: |
Lianqing Xue, Mingjie Yang, Yuanhong Liu, Yixia Chi, Yunbiao Wu, Jing Wang |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| DOI: |
10.21203/rs.3.rs-1222944/v1 |
| Popis: |
With global warming, extreme weather events in various regions have become more abnormal. To study the variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the inland river basin (IRB) of Northwest China, this paper selected four global climate models (GCMs) under a low radiative forcing scenario to analyze eight-core extreme precipitation indices in the basin. According to the changes of each index in the near future (NF) and the far future (FF), the changes of extreme precipitation have been determined under a low radiative forcing scenario in the basin. Our study shows that all four models can capture seasonality and all have uncertainty. The PRCPTOT showed a trend of decreasing from the center to the southeast and northwest. The SDII showed opposite trends in mountainous and central desert regions. The number of CDD will decrease, while the CWD will change significantly. The P1025 and PG25 will increase by more than 50%. The Rx1day and Rx5day are mainly distributed in some areas such as the desert and Gobi. Although we have predicted the future trend of extreme precipitation in the IRB, the precise prediction of extreme precipitation remains to be further studied. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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