Experts and models can agree on species sensitivity values for conservation assessments

Autor: Ermias T. Azeria, Brandon E. Allen, Jason T. Bried, Varina E. Crisfield, Matthew J. Wilson
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Biological Conservation. 225:222-228
ISSN: 0006-3207
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.013
Popis: Species sensitivity values can be used to trigger management interventions and prioritize areas for conservation, with sensitivity estimation methods ranging from expert opinion to empirical modelling. The opinion and modelling approaches each have strengths and weaknesses, raising questions of how much they (dis)agree or which one to follow in conservation assessments. We compared conservatism values assigned by botanists to modelling estimates of sensitivity (change in abundance between current and reference conditions) for 123 wetland macrophyte species across northern prairie and boreal forest regions of Alberta, Canada. Scores from each method were positively correlated and showed limited differences especially in the boreal region. Conservatism distributions for species were broadly similar between regions whereas model-based score distributions differed between regions, probably because the modelling incorporated site-specific responses of species to environmental conditions prevalent in each region. A few species had large mismatch between conservatism and model-based scores, but these cases resulted from extenuating factors and do not reflect systematic bias in expert opinions or the modelling process. Overall the results indicate potential for general agreement between quantitative and qualitative methods of sensitivity estimation, and a complementary approach of expert opinion and modelling may offer the most valuable currency for conservation assessments.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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