A MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF ZIKA VIRUS EPIDEMIC IN RIO DE JANEIRO AS A VECTOR-BORNE AND SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE
| Autor: | Claudia Pio Ferreira, Lourdes Esteva, Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Sexually transmitted disease
0303 health sciences Sexual transmission Ecology biology Applied Mathematics Outbreak General Medicine biology.organism_classification Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) Zika virus 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Geography Vector (epidemiology) 030212 general & internal medicine Basic reproduction number 030304 developmental biology Demography |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Biological Systems. 27:83-105 |
| ISSN: | 1793-6470 0218-3390 |
| Popis: | In this work we formulate a mathematical model to assess the importance of sexual transmission during the Zika virus outbreak that occurred in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015. To this end, we deduce from the model an analytical expression of the basic reproduction number of Zika, [Formula: see text], in terms of the vectorial and sexual transmissions, and we use the estimations given in Ref. 1 [Villela DAM, Bastos LS, de Carvalho LM, Cruz OG, Gomes MFC, Durovni B, Lemos MC, Saraceni V, Coelho FC, Codeço CT, Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks, Epidemiol Infect 145(8):1649–1657, 2017] for the [Formula: see text] values of Zika virus and dengue virus epidemics in Rio de Janeiro to evaluate the contribution of sexual transmission of Zika virus. According to the obtained results, sexual transmission (pure plus mediated by vector transmission) contributes from 23% to 46% for the [Formula: see text] increment. Also, an asymmetric sexual transmission between men and women can explain the fact that the incidence of Zika virus in women was 60% higher than in man during the 2015 epidemics. We also carry out a sensitivity analysis using [Formula: see text] as the output parameter. The results of this analysis have shown that the transmission rate between human and mosquito populations, the mosquito mortality rate, and the human infectious period are the parameters that contribute more to the [Formula: see text] variation, highlighting the importance of vector control to halt disease transmission. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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