| Popis: |
Imperfect detection methods mean that it is difficult to tell whether a species is absent from a site or remains undetected. For this reason, the decision to conclude an eradication program and declare a species successfully eradicated is fraught with uncertainty (Morrison et al., 2007). There are two errors that can be made (Regan et al., 2006). First, if the species is declared eradicated when it is still present, its population could grow undetected, causing large economic and environmental damages. There are costs associated with reinitiating the eradication campaign and reducing the species’ population to a low level. Second, monitoring cannot continue indefinitely, and continuing to survey when a species has already been eradicated uses resources that could be better deployed elsewhere. This chapter reviews statistical models that can be used to quantify the certainty that a species has been successfully eradicated from a site. It then describes how to analyse logically the decision to declare eradication, considering the risks and consequences of getting it wrong. |
