| Autor: |
Victor Chebrov, Gennady Sobolev |
| Rok vydání: |
2014 |
| Předmět: |
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| DOI: |
10.1016/b978-0-12-394848-9.00017-1 |
| Popis: |
A Kamchatka Expert Council was established as a branch of the national Russian Expert Council (KB REC) in 1998. The authors of various methods of earthquake prediction submit their forecasts to KB REC. All predictive messages are documentarily recorded. KB REC's Messages about the seismic situation in Kamchatka are delivered to the Administration and EMERCOM of Kamchatka. Twenty-one earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.0 occurred in KB REC's area of responsibility in 1998–2012. A seismic situation was assessed by nine different methods. Most of the applied prediction methods give earthquake waiting periods of about 1 month. Eight predictions came true with regard to three parameters of the expected earthquake: area, time, and magnitude; seven predictions were erroneous with regard to one or two parameters; three of six missed events had depths >550 km. The experience of the documentarily recorded medium-term earthquake predictions made within 15 years using a suite of methods is unique. It allows an assessment of the level of this domain of science. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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