| Popis: |
Several countries have either imposed or are considering to impose occupancy restrictions on public transport vehicles, as lockdowns are lifted following declines in new cases of Covid-19. This paper analyzes which public policy measures would enable complying with such restrictions on buses. We estimate what would be needed in terms of additional funds, fleet and demand management, and describe the implied changes in road congestion and acceptability concerns. The model allows for heterogeneous individuals, intertemporal, modal, and total transport demand elasticities, and is simulated using data from Santiago, Chile. We find that restricting public transport to 66% of its capacity (social distancing of 0.5 meters) can be achieved by increasing the current subsidy by 2.5 times and the fleet by 40%. However, the same occupancy could be achieved without increasing the subsidy nor the fleet if dedicated bus lanes on congested roads are implemented together with demand management policies such as reductions in the number of motorized trips and staggered work times. Distancing of 1 meter seems unachievable. |
