Community Response to Hurricane Threat: Estimates of Warning Issuance Time Distributions
Autor: | William P. Lehman, Michael K. Lindell, Earl J. Baker, John H. Sorensen |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
021110 strategic
defence & security studies Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change History 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences business.industry Environmental resource management 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Community response business Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Weather, Climate, and Society. 12:837-846 |
ISSN: | 1948-8335 1948-8327 |
Popis: | Hurricane evacuation warnings from local officials are one of the most significant determinants of households’ evacuation departure times. Consequently, it is important to know how long after the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a hurricane watch or warning that local officials wait to issue evacuation warnings. The distribution of local evacuation warning issuance delays determined from poststorm assessment data shows a wide range of warning issuance delay times over an 85-h time span, although the vast majority of times fall within a 40-h window. Nearly 30% of the jurisdictions issued evacuation warnings before an NHC hurricane warning. Only 5% delayed the decision for more than 25 h after the NHC hurricane warning. The curves for warning issuance delays, using both the NHC watch and NHC warning issuance times as reference points, are very different from the warning issuance curves observed for the rapid-onset events. The hurricane data exhibit much more of an “S shape” than the exponential shape that is seen for rapid-onset data. Instead, curves for three different types of storm tracks, defined by a perpendicular/parallel dimension and a straight/meandering dimension, follow three noticeably different logistic distributions. The data also indicate that warnings were issued significantly earlier for coastal counties than for inland counties. These results have direct practical value to analysts that are calculating evacuation time estimates for coastal jurisdictions. Moreover, they suggest directions for future research on the reasons for the timing of local officials’ hurricane evacuation decisions. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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