Quantifying the M8 algorithm: Model, forecast, and evaluation
| Autor: | David Harte, David Vere-Jones, Dong‐Feng Lp, Maaike Wreede, Qiong Wang |
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| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. 50:117-130 |
| ISSN: | 1175-8791 0028-8306 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/00288300709509825 |
| Popis: | We develop procedures for evaluating the efficacy of the M8 algorithm and producing probability forecasts in both time and space. Our modelling method uses the Critical Series developed by Harte et al. in 2003 as a predictor variable in a logistic regression. The M8 algorithm calculates seven time series, and the Critical Series embodies the nonlinear rules for combining the behaviour of these seven time series. The M8 algorithm is typically evaluated in (spatial) circles of quite large radius. Our implementation of this has many large overlapping circles covering New Zealand. This raises both practical and statistical problems. From a practical perspective, we really want probability forecasts within relatively small non‐overlapping synoptic cells. Further, statistical evaluation of the overlapping circles approach is complicated by the lack of independence. In this paper, we develop both the overlapping circle and synoptic forecasting methods and statistical tests for their evaluation. We then ... |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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