Box–Jenkins Methodology Application to Improve Crude Oil Production Forecasting: Case Study in a Colombian Field

Autor: Carlos Mantilla-Duarte, Erik Montes-Páez, Camilo Guerrero-Martina Guerrero-Martin, David Bello-Angulo
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering. 47:11269-11278
ISSN: 2191-4281
2193-567X
DOI: 10.1007/s13369-021-05997-7
Popis: Due to the high uncertainty in the models used to produce production forecasts, different methodologies have been explored in order to improve the situation, including the technique developed in 1970 by Box and Jenkins, which was recently applied. Two of the main limiting factors are their degree of complexity and the time period of the forecasts as the accuracy of the forecast is reduced in the long term. In this research, it has been proposed to combine the Box and Jenkins methodology with the curves of Arps to obtain better forecasts and to automate the entire process in a software tool that significantly reduces the complexity and the time required by the user to make the forecasts.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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